The effects of extreme heat go well beyond recorded temperatures. They reach into many areas, from ecosystems and human health to water availability and agricultural productivity, as well as energy consumption and economic activity. Prolonged abnormal temperatures can also amplify stresses that already exist in a region. This makes it all the more important to have tools that give a clear, continuous reading of what is happening.
Continuous monitoring of the intensity, duration, frequency and geographical distribution of these phenomena is therefore essential. It shows how they evolve over time, helps identify trends, and places individual episodes within a broader climate picture. Data-driven knowledge does more than describe what has happened: it also supports better-informed and more effective prevention, mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Summer 2026: the climate situation in Europe
Looking at extreme events and the main climate dynamics across the whole summer gives a wider view than a single monthly analysis. It brings out the continuities, variations and trends that emerge over the months.
Between June and August 2026, several key findings were recorded, as also shown in the Copernicus ECMWF bulletin:
- The summer just ended (June–August 2026) was the warmest on record globally,tied with 2024, at +0.69°C above the 1991–2020 reference average. From January to August, 2026 is the second-warmest year on record, behind 2024. With El Niño trengthening, it could approach the annual record. In Europe, it was the third-warmest summer on record at +1.17°C above average, after 2024 (+1.55°C) and 2022 (+1.34°C). Western Europe broke its 2003 record at +2.54°C above average, with anomalies of up to 4–5°C in France and north-eastern Spain.
- Over the summer months, western and central Europe, southern Scandinavia and south-eastern Europe were much drier than average. This led to widespread drought and exceptional wildfires in Spain and France in July. Western Iberia, southern Greece and Türkiye, Cyprus and north-eastern Europe were wetter than average. River flows were below average across much of the continent. The Seine, Rhône, Loire and Dnieper hit record lows, and levels on the Rhine, Danube and Vistula were exceptionally low. The impacts reached shipping, energy production and irrigation.
Using E3CI data, we take a closer look at summer 2026 in Europe. The aim is to trace how extreme climate events developed over the summer months and to better understand their intensity, distribution and persistence across the territory.
June 2026
- Europe: 23 countries recorded above-average values for extreme maximum temperatures (Jersey reached 15.4) and 17 for drought (Switzerland reached 2.7). Other phenomena were far less widespread: only one country showed anomalous values for extreme precipitation (Montenegro, 1.8) and one for extreme wind (Jersey, 1.3), while 2 countries did so for hail (Ireland and the Isle of Man, both 1.6).
- Italy: 16 regions recorded anomalies for extreme maximum temperatures, with the highest values concentrated in central and northern areas (Tuscany reached 7.5). Drought was also widespread, again mostly in central and northern regions but with lower intensity (13 regions with values between 1.3 and 2.6).
- Emilia-Romagna: 5 of the main provinces were affected by extreme heat (Parma reached 9.6) and the entire region was affected by drought (peaking at 3.0 in Forlì-Cesena), consistent with the absence of extreme precipitation and hail.
July 2026
- In Europe23 countries recorded above-average values for extreme maximum temperatures Andorra reached 19.0, the highest of all countries) and 15 for drought (though with moderate values, between 1 and 2.6). For extreme precipitation, 4 countries slightly exceeded the E3CI reference average of 1 (Greece, the Faroe Islands, Latvia and Türkiye), and 6 countries did so for extreme wind (including Denmark at 5.3). Finally, 7 countries reached extreme hail values, with peaks in Italy (11.7), Switzerland (12.1) e Malta, and 1 country for wildfires Guernsey with 3.6).
- Italy: every region recorded above-average values for extreme maximum temperatures (with many peaks above 3, including Sicily at 18.6) and 7 regions for drought (with moderate values). Central and southern Italy also showed anomalous values for extreme precipitation in 4 regions, while northern regions saw mild extreme wind (Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Aosta Valley, both 1.1). Hail was especially notable, affecting 19 of 20 regions, with peaks of up to 23.1 (Apulia).
- Emilia-Romagna: 6 of the main provinces were affected by extreme maximum temperatures (peaking at 13.8 in Parma) and 3 by extreme precipitation (Ferrara, Ravenna and Rimini). In line with the national picture, hail was widespread and intense here too, with anomalous values in every province, ranging from 9.3 (Ferrara) to 18.9 (Piacenza).
August 2026
- Europe: 31 countries recorded above-average values for extreme maximum temperatures (Bosnia and Herzegovina reached 13.0, the highest of all countries) and 23 for drought (though with moderate values, between 1 and 2.4). For extreme precipitation, 5 countries exceeded the reference average, with a peak in Cyprus at an E3CI value of 545.9. The figure reflects the severe thunderstorms of 28–30 August, with local totals of up to 75 mm, which made August 2026 the wettest in Cyprus since 1902: 30 mm on average, around ten times the monthly norm. In a season that is almost always dry, a single intense event is enough to push the index sharply upwards. Finally, 6 countries reached extreme wind values, with peaks in Lithuania(18.4), Latvia(16.4) and Cyprus(8.7).
- Italy: every region except the Aosta Valley recorded above-average values for extreme maximum temperatures (all with peaks above 3, including Sicily at 14.5), and 5 regions did so for hail (with some values above 3, such as Sardinia at 5.5).
- Emilia-Romagna: 8 of the main provinces were affected by extreme maximum temperatures (peaking at 11.8 in Parma) and 7 by extreme hail (Forlì-Cesena reached an E3CI value of 3.6).