{"id":1378,"date":"2024-02-02T11:16:15","date_gmt":"2024-02-02T10:16:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climateindex.eu\/what-the-data-tell-us\/"},"modified":"2024-02-05T14:09:16","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T14:09:16","slug":"what-the-data-tell-us","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/climateindex.eu\/en\/what-the-data-tell-us\/","title":{"rendered":"What the data tell us"},"content":{"rendered":"

On the basis of constantly collected and pooled data, the Index is able to establish accurate trends and scenarios concerning the evolution of the weather and climate in the territories covered.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>

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[vc_custom_heading text=”Extreme event trends” use_theme_fonts=”yes”]

The historical data on which the Index is based consist of a database called \u201cERA5\u201d, belonging to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which brings together information dating back to 1940. On the basis of this huge body of data, the Index is able to provide comparative models concerning the seven dynamics monitored \u2013 Heat stress, Cold stress, Extreme precipitation, Drought, Extreme wind, Hail storms and Fires \u2013 for identifying trends and making forecasts.<\/p>\n

More specifically, the Index shows how the number of extreme meteorological events has increased constantly since 1990, with a clear peak in the last decade. In other words, extreme events are more and more common and will increasingly be so.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

Percentage of total months affected by extreme events over the years.<\/span><\/span><\/div>
<\/div>[vc_custom_heading text=”Percentage of total months affected by extreme events over the years.” font_container=”tag:h4|text_align:center” use_theme_fonts=”yes”]
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Percentage of total months affected by extreme events over the years<\/div><\/div><\/div>
<\/div>[vc_custom_heading text=”All extreme events detected in the period 1981-2023 (credits to Cinzia Bongino).” font_container=”tag:h4|text_align:center” use_theme_fonts=”yes”]
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All extreme phenomena detected in the period 1981-2023<\/div>
(credits to Cinzia Bongino)<\/div><\/div><\/div>
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Discover the 7 indicators<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>
[vc_custom_heading text=”How is Italy faring?” use_theme_fonts=”yes”]

In the paper “How is Italy faring?”, starting from the data of the European Extreme Events Climate Index, the extraordinary meteorological events that characterized Italy in the hydrological year from September 2022 to August 2023 are analyzed, quantified, and monitored. The analysis not only allows us to better understand the magnitude of certain phenomena but also to identify trends and provide scientific and visual support to what is happening at the climatic level.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>

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Download<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>
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[vc_custom_heading text=”Using the Index for forecasting purposes” use_theme_fonts=”yes”]

The Index takes on a fundamental role above all for outlining future meteorological and climatic scenarios.
\nUsing dedicated forecasting models, it has returned trend forecasts for five specific dynamics \u2013 Heat stress, Cold stress, Extreme precipitation, Drought and Extreme wind \u2013 for three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios:<\/p>\n

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  • Optimistic scenario (RCP 2.6), in which CO2 emissions are halved by 2050<\/li>\n
  • An \u201cin-between\u201d scenario (RCP 4.5), calculated as intermediate<\/li>\n
  • Pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), in which emissions continue to increase at the current rates<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    The trend of the five dynamics for Italy, from the current day to 2100, is shown below.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>

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